New Orleans Must Brace For Playoff Shortcomings

Zion Williamson has been a New Orleans Pelican for 5 years now. I know what you're thinking. Where did that time go?

Well. There is an answer. The first two years were lost to the buzz, a poor roster, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The following two years were lost to an overhauled roster; as well as significant, long-term injuries to the 2019 1st overall pick out of Duke. 

In some ways, year 5 has felt like year 1; and it's been fun. Zion Williamson playing a lot of basketball makes this team good, and it makes them entertaining. So there's no surprises here.

Of course, there's been no shortage of disappointing losses. Some are still unfortunately fresh on the mind. But come on people, you're Pelicans fans. You know how this works. If the Pelicans ever construct a roster with the best net rating in the history of the league - from top to bottom the most dominant team the NBA has ever seen - that team will still lose at home to the worst team in the league. Probably twice. To reference Jose Mourinho: "This is Pelicans heritage."

Continuing with the non-negotiable Pelicans themes, there have been injuries. Thankfully not to the same extent of years gone by, but nevertheless, rotational pieces Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr, Matt Ryan, and Naji Marshall have each missed considerable stretches of time throughout the season. 

And don't worry, I didn't forget him. Brandon Ingram's left knee injury on March 21st has rather quickly plunged us from first-round home-court advantage conversations to get-the-hell-away-from-LeBron-and-Steph-in-the-play-in-tournament conversations. But, again, it's not New Orleans if there's not a jam-packed injury report. So a big thank you to Zion, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Herb Jones, and the plug-and-play bench guys for holding down the fort at multiple points of the season.

Third-year head coach Willie Green has once again improved the team's record. With 3 games still to play, he's already added eleven wins to the total of his debut campaign in 2021/22. But if you spend too much time on Twitter, you might be convinced he's done the opposite.

Green plays - firstly - the guys he trusts to get the job done on the defensive end of the floor, and - secondly - the more experienced guys. He's been consistent about this since being hired, yet a lot of Twitter fingers are still upset at the lack of opportunity for flamethrowing rookie Jordan Hawkins. This, alongside a few other issues that the Twitter coaching staff have identified with Willie's decisions, means this young coach seemingly still has a lot to prove. Well, a big step towards doing that would be to get out of the first round of the playoffs this year.

However, New Orleans has to brace itself for a disappointing outcome. And if this squad gets bounced in the first round, it doesn't mean Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson have to be split up this summer. It doesn't mean that Willie Green has to be fired. It doesn't mean wholesale changes in any way whatsoever. But unfortunately, the timeline of the current core means that some fans are already out of patience before the face of the franchise has even breathed a playoff game.

While a first-round matchup with a similarly raw and untried Oklahoma City Thunder squad likely looms, there's still every chance the Pelicans draw the defending champion Denver Nuggets. The third possibility is a team that lies between the other two as far as playoff exposure; the Minnesota Timberwolves. The fact is, regardless of where the Pelicans are booking flights to for the start of round one on April 20th, they will not have the experience advantage over their opponent. So why shouldn't we be bracing for an early exit?

Zion Williamson is the only first option on a team in the Western Conference who will be dipping his toes into playoff waters for the first time later this month. Hence, Willie Green has yet to coach a playoff series game planned around him. Hence, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum have yet to play alongside him in a playoff series. 

Never, in recent NBA history, has a team playing together in the postseason for the first time been broken up due to ONE playoff defeat. A few years lost to injury should not mean this Pelicans team should be judged any differently. Zion has been in his street clothes, not taking beatings in the playoffs. 

Let's take the aforementioned defending champions as a fantastic example of the benefits of staying the course:

2019: lost to Portland Trail Blazers in the conference semi-finals

2020: lost to Los Angeles Lakers in the conference finals

2021: lost to Phoenix Suns in the conference semi-finals

2022: lost to Golden State Warriors in the first round

2023: defeated Miami Heat in the Finals to win the NBA Championship

Patience pays off. Development pays off. Attaining a wealth of experience pays off. Options 1 and 2, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, alongside head coach Mike Malone, were on the roster for each of the seasons listed above and are now well-equipped and poised to defend their throne in the upcoming postseason. 

In 2019, Nikola Jokic was 24 years old. He eventually won the title at 28. Zion Williamson is just 23 years old. 

Mike Malone won 33 games in his first season and won his first title in his eighth season in charge of the Nuggets. Willie Green is only in his third season in charge of the Pelicans. He won 36 games in his first season.

No two situations are exactly the same, but a lack of patience has been a disease across professional sports in the modern age. When a team is trending in the right direction (getting and STAYING healthy, adding wins to the record, learning each other's tendencies and building a body of playoff work, etc.), the rate at which the improvement is happening should not matter. Especially not in a small market like New Orleans. Especially not with a young squad. Taking steps forward is what matters and the process can't be rushed. The expectation of second-round-or-bust for this squad is one formed by Twitter, not by reality. The goal for the regular season was to keep Williamson on the floor. Logically, the goal for the postseason is surely to get Williamson on the floor.

Let Zion Williamson take in the playoffs. Let his mind compute what he sees, get a feel for the officiating, for the atmosphere inside the Smoothie King Center, and let him, the supporting cast, the coaching staff, and us as fans take it all on board and enjoy it. Playoff basketball is fun, and while the championship window is yet to officially open, a city that knows how to have a good time should do just that before the burden of win-or-bust becomes a true reality. 

New Orleans carries a young, long, athletic, vibrant group that no one is in a rush to play against. Herb Jones alone is to be avoided "like the plague." But that doesn't mean that losing a first-round playoff series would be catastrophic. It would be a lesson learned and an extraordinarily necessary step achieved in the process of becoming winners: losing.